Retail traders are betting big on the real estate tech stock after a hedge fund manager’s explosive $82 price target prediction
The penny stock graveyard just produced its newest resurrection story. Opendoor Technologies (NASDAQ: OPEN) has exploded from near-death at $0.81 on July 1st to a stunning $3.89 by July 21st — a jaw-dropping 381% surge in just three weeks. This meteoric rise has retail investors buzzing about whether they’ve found the next Carvana-style turnaround play, with some calling it the most exciting meme stock rally since GameStop’s legendary squeeze.
The catalyst? A bold prediction from hedge fund manager Eric Jackson, who previously called Carvana’s historic comeback when it was trading in single digits. Now he’s set his sights on Opendoor with an audacious $82 price target and claims it “could be a 100-bagger over the next few years”.
📈 What Happened with Opendoor Stock?
The timeline reads like a Wall Street fairy tale turned reality. Just six weeks ago, Opendoor was flirting with bankruptcy, hitting a 52-week low of $0.51 on June 26th and facing potential delisting from Nasdaq for failing to maintain the $1 minimum bid price. The company had even scheduled a shareholder meeting for July 28th to approve a reverse stock split of up to 1-for-50 shares.
Then came the game-changer. On July 14th, Eric Jackson from EMJ Capital unleashed a Twitter thread that would ignite one of 2025’s most dramatic stock rallies. Jackson, who gained legendary status for his early Carvana call when that stock was trading at $11 (it’s now over $350), declared his firm had taken a position in Opendoor.
The surge timeline:
- July 14: Jackson posts bullish thesis, stock jumps from $0.70 to $0.87 (+24%)
- July 15: Retail momentum builds, another 43% gain
- July 16: Options activity explodes, stock hits $1.49
- July 17: Single biggest day gain of 28.9%[execute_python]
- July 18: Closes at $2.25 after 189% weekly performance
- July 21: Peaks at $4.36 intraday with record 897 million shares traded[execute_python]
Social media went wild. Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum lit up with dozens of bullish posts garnering thousands of comments. Trading volume exploded to over 340 million shares in a single session — more than 3x the normal daily average. The stock became the third most trending ticker on social platforms.
🧠 Why Are Investors Comparing Opendoor to Carvana?
The parallels between Opendoor’s current situation and Carvana’s 2022-2023 turnaround are striking, and Eric Jackson is betting history will repeat itself.
Similar Business Models:
Both companies pioneered digital-first approaches to traditionally offline markets. Carvana revolutionized used car buying with its online platform and vending machines, while Opendoor created the “iBuying” model — purchasing homes directly with cash offers, renovating them, and reselling for a profit.
Comparable Crisis Moments:
Carvana nearly went bankrupt in 2022, with its stock crashing from $370 to under $4 — a 99% plunge. Similarly, Opendoor fell from its $39 peak in 2021 to just $0.51 in June 2025, also losing 99% of its value.
Market Dominance After Competitors Exit:
Jackson’s thesis centers on reduced competition. Just as Carvana benefited when competitors like Vroom struggled, Opendoor now faces less competition after Zillow and Redfin both exited the iBuying space in recent years.
The “100-Bagger” Potential:
Carvana delivered a 8,600% return from its $4 low to current levels around $350. Jackson believes Opendoor could achieve similar gains, projecting revenue growth from $5 billion in 2024 to $12 billion by 2029.
📊 Opendoor’s Financials & Business Fundamentals (2025)
Despite the stock euphoria, Opendoor’s financial picture remains challenging but shows emerging signs of stabilization.
Q1 2025 Key Results:
- Revenue: $1.2 billion (flat year-over-year, beat estimates by $130 million)
- Net Loss: $85 million (improved from $109 million in Q1 2024)
- Homes Sold: 2,946 (down 4% year-over-year)
- Homes Purchased: 3,609 (up 4% year-over-year)
- Inventory: $2.4 billion across 7,080 homes (up 24% from prior year)
Profitability Progress:
The most encouraging development is Opendoor’s path toward profitability. Adjusted EBITDA loss shrunk to $30 million from $50 million a year earlier. More importantly, the company projects its first positive quarterly EBITDA in Q2 2025, with guidance of $10-20 million — a milestone three years in the making.
Cost-Cutting Success:
Management has executed aggressive cost reductions, with fixed operating expenses falling 33% year-over-year to help drive toward profitability. Stock-based compensation expense is expected to decline over 50% year-over-year.
Strategic Pivot:
Opendoor is evolving from a pure iBuying model to a hybrid agent-assisted platform. This shift reduces capital intensity while expanding market reach through partnerships with real estate agents.
2025 Financial Outlook:
- Q2 2025 Revenue: $1.45-1.525 billion (guided up significantly)
- Full-Year Revenue: Expected to decline in H2 2025 as company prioritizes profitability over growth
- Cash Position: $559 million unrestricted cash plus $6.9 billion borrowing capacity provides financial runway
⚠️ Risks You Should Know Before Buying
While the meme stock rally has been spectacular, substantial risks remain for Opendoor investors.
Extreme Volatility:
This stock isn’t for the faint of heart. Opendoor’s beta of 2.76 means it moves nearly 3x more than the overall market. Daily price swings of 20-30% have become routine, with the stock experiencing 31% intraday volatility during the recent rally.
Delisting Threat Still Looms:
Despite the recent surge, Opendoor still faces a November 24, 2025 deadline to maintain its Nasdaq listing. If the stock falls back below $1 and stays there, delisting remains a real possibility.
Challenging Housing Market:
The macro environment remains tough for iBuyers. Mortgage rates above 7%, declining home sales volumes, and reduced buyer demand continue to pressure the business model. Clearance rates are down 25% year-over-year while delistings jumped 30%.
High Short Interest:
With 22% of the float sold short, Opendoor remains heavily bet against by institutional investors. While this creates short squeeze potential, it also reflects Wall Street skepticism about the business model.
Analyst Skepticism:
Despite retail enthusiasm, professional analysts remain bearish. The consensus price target of just $0.93 implies 76% downside from current levels. Goldman Sachs maintains a sell rating with a $0.90 target.
Cash Burn Continues:
While improving, Opendoor still burns cash and remains unprofitable. The company’s Altman Z-Score of 0.74 indicates significant bankruptcy risk.
🚀 What’s Next for Opendoor Stock? Price Predictions & Analyst Takes
The investment community is sharply divided on Opendoor’s future, creating a high-stakes binary bet for investors.
The Bull Case ($82 Target):
Eric Jackson’s aggressive thesis centers on several catalysts:
- Interest rate cuts boosting housing market activity
- Reduced competition after Zillow/Redfin exits providing market share gains
- Operational leverage from cost cuts driving profitability
- Strategic evolution to asset-light model improving margins
Jackson believes the company can achieve $12 billion in revenue by 2029, up from $5 billion in 2024, through market share expansion and operational improvements.
Wall Street Reality Check:
Professional analysts remain far more cautious:
Critical Earnings Catalyst:
All eyes turn to August 5th when Opendoor reports Q2 2025 results. This earnings call could be make-or-break, as Jackson predicts the company will post its first positive quarterly EBITDA in three years.
Reddit & Social Sentiment:
Retail trader sentiment remains “extremely bullish” on platforms like StockTwits. WallStreetBets continues to buzz with options plays and diamond-hands rhetoric reminiscent of the GameStop saga.
Technical Analysis:
The stock shows classic meme stock characteristics — massive volume spikes, options activity driving price action, and social media momentum. However, with RSI above 90, many technical indicators suggest the stock is severely overbought.
The Bottom Line: Opendoor’s 381% surge represents either the early stages of a historic turnaround story or one of 2025’s most spectacular pump-and-dumps. With Eric Jackson’s $82 target implying another 2,000% upside and Wall Street calling for 63% downside, this binary bet embodies maximum risk and maximum reward.
The August 5th earnings report will likely determine whether this meme stock momentum can translate into sustainable business performance. For now, retail traders are betting that lightning can strike twice — and that Opendoor will become the next Carvana success story.
Are you betting on Opendoor’s comeback? Let us know below.
Read More: Opendoor Stock Skyrockets 381% in Three Weeks — Is This the Next Carvana Comeback Story?
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